Determining the optimal duration of community supervision is a central challenge in correctional policy, with profound implications for public safety, rehabilitation progress, and resource allocation. A data-driven approach is essential to calibrate supervision lengths that safeguard public safety and promote successful reintegration, while avoiding the diminishing returns of excessive oversight from prolonged supervision.
This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of supervision duration policies in Singapore’s Community-Based Programmes (CBPs) under the Drug Rehabilitation Centre Regime. Specifically, it addresses two objectives: (1) to establish empirically-derived supervision duration guidelines tailored to distinct risk profiles that optimise rehabilitation progress, and (2) to assess the impact of extended supervision durations following amendments to the Misuse of Drugs Act in 2019 on key supervision outcomes. Employing a retrospective cohort design, administrative records from over 13,000 supervisees emplaced on CBPs between 2015 and 2024 were analysed. Survival analysis methods accounting for competing risks were applied to model risk trajectories of abscondment, recalls due to technical violations, and recidivism across CBP periods, generating nuanced insights into distinct trajectories across supervisee risk profiles.
The findings provide a clear, data-driven foundation for calibrating effective supervision duration policies and informing targeted risk mitigation strategies for CBPs. By clarifying when, for whom, and for how long supervision is most effective, this study informs a risk-proportional supervision duration framework designed to ensure public safety, strengthen rehabilitation and reintegration, and enhance the efficient use of correctional resources.
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Salina Samion
Deputy Director (Psychological and Correctional Rehabilitation Division) / DD PCRD, Singapore Prison Service, Singapore
Ms Salina Samion is a counselling psychologist with 20 years’ experience working with the offender population. She headed the Psychological Programme Development Branch and led the development of various evidence-based programmes in Singapore Prison Service (SPS), including the first gender specific intervention for female offenders. She also helmed CNB Psychological Unit and pioneered the core skills training in effective supervision for CNB officers, that contributed to evidence based informed drug supervision. Salina co-led the MHA Office of Chief Psychologist drug workgroup that aims to support Singapore’ approach in drug prevention and rehabilitation through research and evidence.
Salina has published and presented at local and international conferences, including the UNODC where she represented Singapore at the Informal Technical Consultation: Principles for Treatment and Care of People with Drug Use Disorders in Contact with the Criminal Justice System: Alternatives to Conviction or Punishment. She is currently Deputy Director of the Psychological and Correctional Division that oversees the correctional research and evaluation, programme design and implementation at SPS.
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Xuan Chua
Correctional Rehabilitation Specialist (Correctional Research Branch), Singapore Prison Service, Singapore
Ms Chua Xuan is a Correctional Rehabilitation Specialist with the Singapore Prison Service (SPS). She currently serves in the Correctional Research Branch, where she conducts research and evaluation on rehabilitation and supervision initiatives for drug offenders to inform evidence-based policy and practice. In her previous post within the Community Corrections Command, she engaged in direct practice through counselling, case management, and supervision of individuals on Community-Based Programmes.
Xuan holds a Bachelor’s degree in Psychology with Honours (Highest Distinction) from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. She is passionate about bridging research and frontline practice, and her work seeks to advance correctional policy and strengthen rehabilitative outcomes for diverse offender populations.
