Individuals with psychiatric disorders are disproportionately represented in the correctional system, often lacking adequate resources. Current risk assessment tools used for monitoring assume static risk levels, overlooking the potential effects of crime desistance and sudden but transient changes in an individual's circumstances. Addressing these issues, we created a dynamic prediction model for criminal recidivism among those under community supervision.
Using data from 59,676 individuals given community sentences in Sweden, we developed the model, considering criminal, sociodemographic, and clinical factors. Employing a dynamic prediction method, we accounted for adverse events, changes in circumstances, and crime desistance.
Our model tool demonstrated robust calibration and discrimination (c-index = 0.74 for violent reoffending, 0.69 for general reoffending). We also demonstrated that if used for continuous monitoring, conventional risk assessment tools tend to overestimate recidivism risk over time, highlighting the need for dynamic monitoring.
Our model offers sensitive risk estimates adaptable to individual changes and distance from crime. Implementing such dynamic models could enhance risk stratification for those with psychiatric disorders under supervision, improving service provision and outcomes.
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Dr Denis Yukhnenko MSc DPhil
Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Denis is a postdoctoral researcher in Psychiatric Epidemiology based in the Department of Psychiatry at the University of Oxford. He also holds the position of Research Fellow in Statistics and Epidemiology at University College London.
His research focuses on the association between mental disorders and adverse outcomes, such as criminal recidivism and mortality. Another area of Denis's research is the application of dynamic risk prediction models to forensic risk assessment in sentenced populations.
Denis has a background in clinical and forensic psychology. He has experience working as a disaster mental health practitioner and a cognitive behavioral therapist.
