Advancing Corrections Journal - Edition #10 - Understanding, Assessing, Managing and Reducing RISK (ACJ10-A003)
Abstract
Risk instruments are a mainstay of correctional practice, informing such key decisions as custody classification, the timing of release from prison, and resource allocation for programming and supervision. Over the past 4 decades these risk instruments have evolved, yielding greater breadth in terms of content and applications for different offender subgroups and outcomes. With these changes a primary consideration has been the predictive accuracy of each instrument, often prompting users to champion one risk assessment instrument (RAI) over another. An equally central consideration is the longevity of a risk instrument and its ability to sustain accuracy over time. This paper introduces the concept of risk decay or half-life of risk instruments and discusses its implications for risk assessment.
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